Warning signs point to an impending interest rate shock

Australia’s biggest bank has increased its fixed home loan rates, raising concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may lift interest rates in the near future.

The Commonwealth Bank yesterday raised owner-occupier fixed rates by up to 0.7 percentage points, with its lowest fixed rate now standing at 5.79 per cent for a two-year term. On the same day, Macquarie Bank also increased fixed rates by 0.25 percentage points across all loan terms, taking its lowest rate to 5.59 per cent for a one-year loan. Macquarie had already raised rates earlier on December 5.

Following these adjustments, NAB now offers the lowest fixed rate among the major banks, at 5.39 per cent for both one-year and two-year terms.

Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said the increases reflect growing expectations in the market of a possible rise in the cash rate. “The move follows hikes from the other major banks in December as the fixed-rate market continues to factor in the possibility of a higher cash rate,” she said.

The RBA is scheduled to meet on February 2 to decide on the cash rate, which has remained at 3.6 per cent for several months amid ongoing concerns about persistent inflation.

Tindall noted that Canstar expects banks to continue lifting fixed rates ahead of the next RBA meeting. She added that the number of lenders offering fixed rates below 5 per cent has dropped sharply, from 27 a month ago to just 16 now, and could fall to single digits if the trend continues.

Canstar rate tracking shows that 34 lenders have raised at least one fixed rate over the past month. While major banks have offered mixed forecasts for the cash rate this year, both CBA and NAB have predicted further increases, while others expect rates to remain steady but not decline.

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