Climate experts are warning that a developing El Niño weather pattern could bring hotter, drier conditions to large parts of Australia, increasing the risk of bushfires and extreme weather in the months ahead.

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially confirmed the arrival of El Niño, with forecasts indicating the climate event could strengthen into a “strong to very strong” phase later this year. While a powerful El Niño does not automatically guarantee severe impacts, scientists say the combination of El Niño and climate change could significantly increase the likelihood of record-breaking heat and dangerous fire conditions.

Climate Councillor Andrew Watkins said rising global temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions are amplifying the effects of natural climate cycles. He warned that climate change and El Niño together are creating conditions that favour extreme heat, flash droughts, and heightened bushfire danger.

Adding to concerns, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has estimated a 63 percent chance that the current El Niño could reach record-breaking strength by the end of 2026.

Long-range forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology predict below-average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia over the next three months, along with higher daytime temperatures south of the tropics and warmer-than-normal nights across much of the country.

Historically, El Niño events have been associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall, hotter temperatures, and increased bushfire risks, particularly in eastern and southern Australia.

Wildlife and environmental groups have also expressed concern. Robert Leach of the International Fund for Animal Welfare warned that ecosystems are still recovering from previous disasters, including the devastating Black Summer bushfires, and may struggle to cope with another severe fire season.

Emergency services across several states are already preparing for a potentially challenging summer, while farmers are closely monitoring forecasts as they make critical decisions about crops and livestock.

Although experts caution that Australia’s climate is influenced by several factors beyond El Niño, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and regional sea temperatures, many agree that communities should remain alert and prepare for the possibility of hotter, drier, and more volatile weather conditions in the months ahead.