Sri Lanka is expected to experience the El Niño phenomenon by May this year, raising concerns of a prolonged dry spell and intense heat, a climatologist has warned.

Climatologist Malith Fernando stated that the conditions could emerge by early May if the El Niño index exceeds 0.5, potentially disrupting the onset of the Southwest Monsoon.

He noted that while the phenomenon may lead to drier and hotter conditions, some showers could still occur around mid-April, which is typical for the season.

Meanwhile, Department of Meteorology Director General Athula Karunanayake said the country is already experiencing a dry spell due to reduced cloud formation, with no expectation of heavy rainfall until around October. He added that El Niño conditions could further prolong the dry weather.

The Department also warned that the heat index—reflecting how hot it feels to the human body—is likely to reach “caution levels” in several provinces, including Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North-Western, Northern, and North Central, as well as the Moneragala District.