Sri Lanka’s latest population census has sparked debate after reporting that the country’s fertility rate had fallen to just 1.3 children per woman — a figure usually associated with some of the world’s lowest-fertility nations. However, demographic experts say the situation may be more complex than it first appears.
According to analysts, while birth rates have declined in recent years, much of the reduction may reflect delayed marriage and postponed childbearing rather than a complete collapse in family size. Questions have also been raised about whether recent births were fully captured in the census data.
Experts note that fertility declines of this scale are usually gradual and unfold over decades. Countries such as South Korea and many European nations experienced declining fertility over long periods, making Sri Lanka’s reported drop from 2.42 in 2012 to 1.32 in 2024 appear unusually rapid.
Marriage patterns suggest that Sri Lankan women are marrying later, with the average age at marriage increasing from around 23 years in 2012 to nearly 26 years in 2024. However, most women still marry by their early 30s, indicating that marriage is being delayed rather than abandoned.
Researchers also point out that fertility among married women remains relatively strong, with many still having around two to three children during their reproductive years. This suggests that family preferences may not have shifted as dramatically as the headline fertility figure implies.
Demographers believe part of the discrepancy may stem from how fertility is measured in census data. Unlike specialised demographic surveys, censuses rely on simpler reporting methods that can sometimes undercount recent births. Adjusted estimates based on demographic checks suggest Sri Lanka’s actual fertility rate could be closer to replacement level at around 2.1 children per woman.
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and Sri Lanka’s economic crisis are also believed to have played a major role. Experts say uncertainty and financial hardship often lead families to postpone having children, a trend observed in several countries during periods of economic instability.
While Sri Lanka is undeniably facing an ageing population and long-term demographic transition, analysts stress that policy decisions should be based on accurate interpretation of data rather than alarm over potentially misleading figures.
They argue that the country’s priority should be adapting to population ageing through stronger pension systems, improved healthcare, youth employment opportunities, and better demographic data collection, rather than assuming the country is facing an immediate fertility collapse.
