A new Australian study has warned that deaths linked to heatwaves in Australia are expected to rise sharply due to climate change, with annual fatalities projected to reach nearly 6,000 by 2100.

The research indicates that this would be about 24 times higher than current levels, where approximately 250 people died each year from extreme heat between 2016 and 2019.

The study, led by researchers from Monash University and published in The Lancet Planetary Health, predicts that rapidly increasing temperatures will significantly worsen public health outcomes across the country.

It estimates that by the 2090s, the annual heatwave-related death toll could rise to 5,913, with some regions facing particularly severe impacts.

The Northern Territory is expected to experience the most dramatic increase, with mortality rates from heatwaves projected to rise by over 4,000 percent.

Even relatively less affected regions, such as parts of the South Australia coastline, are still expected to see significant increases in heat-related deaths.

Researchers analysed climate data from more than 2,200 communities across Australia to assess the regional risks of rising temperatures.

By 2090–2099, the Northern Territory is projected to record the highest annual excess mortality rate, followed by Queensland and New South Wales.

Lead researcher Professor Shandy Li said the findings highlight the urgent need for stronger climate mitigation efforts and region-specific adaptation strategies to reduce health inequalities.

Co-author Professor Yuming Guo noted that northern and inland areas are especially vulnerable, particularly due to higher Indigenous populations and limited access to cooling and healthcare facilities.

He warned that without coordinated action, climate change could significantly intensify the health impacts of extreme heat and place growing pressure on Australia’s public health system.