Bendigo Bank has forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to cut interest rates in September, following the August rate reduction.
In August, the RBA lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent, a level not seen since April 2023. While the minutes from that meeting had suggested further cuts could follow, Bendigo Bank chief economist David Robertson expects the RBA to maintain the current rate this month, citing inflation pressures.
“After the August cash rate cut, we’re not expecting a back-to-back cut in September—especially after a higher inflation reading in the latest monthly indicator for July,” Robertson said.
He added that another rate cut is forecast for November, depending on the quarterly jobs data to be released in late October. Robertson noted that while the RBA anticipated some rise in the consumer price index due to electricity rebates and other one-off factors, core inflation remains slightly elevated, so the bank will wait for full third-quarter data before deciding on further easing.
According to Robertson, the next potential rate cut will also depend on employment data and export demand, as the RBA approaches the bottom of its current easing cycle.
